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Tuesday, June 28 • 11:24am - 11:42am
United Nations World Population Projections with R

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Recently, the United Nations adopted a probabilistic approach to projecting fertility, mortality and population for all countries. In this approach, the total fertility and female and male life expectancy at birth are projected using Bayesian hierarchical models estimated via Markov Chain Monte Carlo. They are then combined yielding probabilistic projections for any population quantity of interest. The methodology is implemented in a suite of R packages which has been used by the UN to produce the most recent revision of the World Population Prospects. I will summarize the main ideas behind each of the packages, namely bayesTFR, bayesLife, bayesPop, bayesDem, and the shiny-based wppExplorer. I will also touch on our experience of the collaboration between academics and the UN.

avatar for Heather Turner

Heather Turner

Freelance consultant
I'm a freelance statistical computing consultant providing support in R to people in a range of industries, but particularly the life sciences. My interests include statistical modelling, clustering, bioinformatics, reproducible research and graphics. I chair the core group of Forwards... Read More →


Hana Ševčíková

University of Washington

Tuesday June 28, 2016 11:24am - 11:42am PDT
McCaw Hall